.With the Super Bowl upon us and the fantasy football season in the rearview mirror, it's the perfect time to turn our attention to America's pastime. The 2025 season is on the horizon, and we're just over a month away from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs squaring off for a two-game series in Tokyo. If you haven't already, now is the perfect time to prepare for your fantasy baseball drafts.
The incoming prospects this season are exciting, and it's only a matter of if, not when they begin to impact your team on the field and in fantasy lineups. However, we'd be remiss not to scour the statistics and leaderboards in search of veteran athletes who may improve upon years past. Examining a prospect's upside is always fun, but nailing a few veteran roster selections can be the difference between a first-round playoff exit and legitimate fantasy contenders. With this in mind, we'll do just that -- hunt for 2025's breakout assets.
Breakout is a funny term that's marginally subjective and often confused with 'sleepers.' While both indicate a player that may be worth our time, there is a vast difference in how they should be valued. A 'sleeper' is a player typically taken later in the draft who is undervalued at his current ADP. For instance, Player 'X' is the 52nd-ranked outfielder, but stands a good chance to finish the season a bit better at ~OF40. On the other hand, a breakout can be selected at any point in the draft and is projected to take a big step forward in both ability and capability. E.G.: Player 'Y' is the 2B20 in ADP but has a shot to finish in the top five at his position.
For the players below, the ADP affixed to their name is an aggregate of Yahoo!, FantasyPros, and CBS Sports ADP to help give an idea of where they may fall in drafts. As the average draft price varies from platform to platform, this should give you an idea of the pockets that these players occupy and a general aim of whom you may target at each pick. Please consider these potential 2025 Fantasy Baseball Breakout candidates, and be on the lookout for 'sleepers' and 'busts' over the next few weeks. Let's dive in.
2025 Breakouts
Jordan Westburg, 3B - Baltimore Orioles (ADP- 109.6)
Jordan Westburg appeared to be on his way to a full breakout in 2024 before a hand fracture at the tail end of July shelved him for nearly two months and derailed his excellent first-half progress. While the 25-year-old improved his average by just four points (.264) from the previous season, many of his underlying metrics show promise, and his splits tell much of the story.
Westburg was superb in April and May, working to a .294 average, eight home runs, five steals, and a 14:38 BB: K ratio (19% strikeout rate). Unfortunately, his plate discipline took a step back in June and July, as he registered just six more walks in those months while his K% crept up to 23% before hitting the IL. After the injury, he took just 27 plate appearances and hit a paltry .192 with one extra-base hit. It was an ill-fated turn that tarnished a once-budding campaign.
Recency bias aside, the third-year pro had some fantastic batted-ball metrics. He ticked up his average exit velocity (91.1 MPH) and hard-hit percentage (46.1%) in his second stint with Baltimore, dropping his K-rate to 21.7%. His walk rate did come down a bit to 4.9%, but it's worth noting that he rarely fell under 10% in that statistic throughout his minor-league career. While it would have been nice to see that figure go up, the third baseman did make much better contact.
The former first-round pick bolstered an 88th percentile xWOBA (.353) and 92nd percentile xSLG (.491) while nearly doubling his barrels per plate appearance (8.5%) from 2023. Both numbers are tantalizing and put him in some pretty interesting company. His xWOBA figure slots right behind perennial All-Star sluggers Mookie Betts (.356) and Bryce Harper (.357), and his xSLG is right in line with superstar teammate Gunnar Henderson (.492).
I was all in on Westburg last year, and I'm pushing my chips in again in 2025. I'm happy to take him around where he's going in ADP and would even consider reaching a bit for him if I had to. In addition to his added positional versatility (2B), I suspect he'll work his way toward the top of the lineup this year, which should push his counting stats into viable territory.
Lawrence Butler, OF - Oakland Athletics (ADP- 90)
To say Lawrence Butler's 2024 started poorly would be an egregious understatement. From March to the end of June, he was terrible. Like, awful. Over 134 at-bats in that span, he hit an abysmal .172 (23 hits) with just six extra-base hits (four doubles/two HRs) and a 15:46 BB: K rate (31K%). He was a part-time player and spent most of his time toiling away near the bottom of a horrendous A's lineup. However, all that would change in July.
At the end of June, the 24-year-old returned from a stint in the minor leagues and worked on his batting mechanics with Oakland's director of hitting, Darren Bush. Bush suggested a few tweaks—including eliminating excess movement and staying back on the ball longer—that he thought might help, and they did wonders. From July 1 on, he hit a stellar .302 with 20 HRs, 14 steals, and a .943 OPS.
Not only was he a vastly improved hitter, but the New Jersey native's plate discipline also grew in leaps and bounds. Additionally, he cut that ugly 30+% K-rate down to 20.6% and even ticked up his BB% to a respectable 7%.
Butler racked up 32 extra-base hits in 237 at-bats after adjusting his swing -- effectively doubling the output he registered in the first half on 62 fewer at-bats. Additionally, he was thrust into the top spot in the Athletic's lineup. This significantly boosted his counting stats, particularly his run production, which also more than doubled from pre-All-Star to post (43).
Admittedly, the former sixth-round pick's ADP is getting slightly out of hand. For instance, I'd be happier taking Westburg and Riley Greene (see below) before him at this point. This isn't to say I doubt the breakout. Butler feels safer than those two options from a hitting perspective, considering there were actual adjustments to his swing that impacted his play. For now, I'm keeping an eye on his draft price, and I still want him on my teams.
Riley Greene, OF - Detroit Tigers (ADP- 124.3)
I was confident that the Riley Greene breakout was on the way in 2024. Big things appeared to be on the horizon for a player who hit .288 with a .289 xBA in 2023. However, he'd end up taking a slight step back. Instead of continuing his improvement over a larger sample size, the fourth-year pro could only muster a .262 batting average while seeing his average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage bump down a smidge. It wasn't all bad in 2024 for him, though. Despite a drop in some metrics, others hint that the true breakout could be coming this season.
While some metrics took a hit, others vastly improved. First, the 24-year-old increased his launch angle from 6.6 to 12.2, correlating in 24 HRs -- more than twice as many as he hit the year before (11). However, that number came on just 134 more at-bats. Moreover, if we dig deeper, aside from two months, he was exceptional.
In May and August, he hit .220 and .205 respectively (the only months he went under a .278 average). Still, those can be explained by a slow start and shaking off rust after returning from injury, as he missed nearly a month with a hamstring strain.
Another feather in Greene's cap was his improvement in plate discipline. I'll admit, even though it dropped for the third consecutive season, a 26.7% strikeout rate isn't what we want to see -- especially in points leagues. Still, he increased his BB% to an even 11% from 8.6% the two years prior. Further, in concordance with his rise in launch angle, Greene dropped his ground-ball percentage for the second straight season (43.6%).
I'm not super-stoked about the Tigers' lineup protection, but the former fifth-overall pick figures to hit in the top three, so his counting stats should be fine. It'd be nice to see him run a bit more, but Greene is the type of player that can morph into a four-category monster, and that's the kind of asset I want on my squad.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B - Kansas City Royals (ADP- 122.3)
Vinnie Pasquantino -- like Greene -- also took a slight step back but still had a fantastic year. In 2024 fantasy drafts, he was my "last man standing" at first base. I knew that if all the other players I wanted were gone he would be a great fall-back option. While he was a little streaky, it mostly worked out until a late-season broken thumb would knock him from all action in September. It's a shame, too, because he was finally heating up.
Selected by the Royals out of Old Dominion, the former eleventh-round pick of the 2019 MLB Draft was a force in the minor leagues. He quickly rose through all three levels on the back of a .292 average over 246 games. Pasquantino made plenty of contact and finished his minor league career with an impressive 131:143 BB: K ratio. If you know anything about me -- I'm a sucker for good plate discipline.
The 27-year-old slugger hit a superb .295 in his rookie debut (258 at-bats) but has yet to eclipse .262 in the two seasons since. He hit a ton of line drives in 2022 (29.2%), but that number dipped to 23.5% in 2024. We'd love to see him bump that figure back up, but I think his batting average should creep up to the .270s or better in 2025.
Not only do I see a bounce-back in his future, but 2023 and 2024 are outliers regarding his contact skills. In those two seasons, Pasquantino's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was uncharacteristically low, sitting at .250 and .265. However, he brandished a .306 BABIP back in 2022 and averaged .287 over three seasons in the minors.
I'm overly excited about the top of Kansas City's lineup for 2025, which should feature Pasquantino in the three-hole with the newly acquired Jonathan India and superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. ahead of him. His RBI opportunities will be through the roof, and another plate discipline improvement is not out of the question.
Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP - Atlanta Braves (ADP- 96)
The Braves did it again in 2024, calling up yet another future star from a seemingly bottomless farm system. This time, it came in the form of 24-year-old Spencer Schwellenbach. The rookie didn't see his first taste of action until May and struggled over his first few appearances. He'd register a 1-4 record with a 5.68 ERA and 32:9 K: BB ratio through five starts. Not bad for a first stint.
However, that would quickly change as Atlanta's young hurler evolved into a stud down the stretch. From July on, he'd pitch to an absurd 2.54 ERA, 7-3 record, and 26.2% strikeout rate. For reference, the 25.4% rate he finished with on the season as a whole puts him at the 70th percentile amongst all pitchers in 2024.
If there is one thing Schwellenbach is capable of, it's making batters look foolish in the box. That's evidenced by his 96th percentile chase percentage (34.2%), forcing a swing-and-miss on one of every three pitches. It's nothing new for him, as he struck out roughly a batter an inning during his minor league career while holding walks to a minimum (52 [6%]).
The 24-year-old featured a six-pitch mix in 2024, with just one utilized less than 13% of the time (sinker [7%]). Impressively, all but the sinker generated whiffs 19.9% of the time or greater, with his curveball and splitter topping the scales at an astounding 40.9% and 46.3% whiff rate.
Schwellenbach is a top-100 pick right now across most of the major fantasy platforms, and for good reason. This is a fine spot for him in drafts, but expect his ADP to tick up over the next month and a half. Still, I'd be comfortable taking Schwellenbach as my second starter in a points league, and I am beginning to consider him over the Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen.
As we gear up for 2025, it's crucial to identify both emerging stars and under-the-radar veterans who can elevate your team. While breakout players like Jordan Westburg, Lawrence Butler, and Riley Greene show immense promise, veterans with proven upside—such as Vinnie Pasquantino and Spencer Schwellenbach—could be the key difference-makers in your drafts. With a blend of excitement and solid statistical backing, these players present an opportunity to seize value ahead of the competition. Stay informed, track player development, and use your draft capital wisely to set your fantasy squad up for success.
