Q) Why Does The Machine Waiver Recommendations for Free Agents Seem Off?
A) The Machine tries to build a roster that is ideal for the remainder of the year and is doing what it is programmed to do - make recommendations based on improving your probability to win the playoffs based on your current roster. If you want to focus on the current week only, go to the Player Projections page, filter for “My Team + Free Agents” and then sort by current week fantasy points. Just click on the column header for the week you care about, then you will get the list of the best free agents for the current week compared with your roster.
Here are a few examples where you might question The Machine’s recommendations:
Why is The Machine recommending I drop a good WR and recommends any of 3 average TEs?
A) Let's say you have five WRs to fill only two starting slots, but have only 1 TE to fill your TE starting slot. Based on projections, matchup schedules, playoff rules, injury rates, etc, The Machine calculates the value of backup players very accurately. In this case The Machine is calculating that an average backup TE has more value than a fifth WR. It often finds players that have complimentary strong weeks. It makes all its decisions to try to give you the best roster possible, not just for the current week but for the entire season as if you will never get to make another waiver move. You might also find a better TE by attempting to trade your WR.
Why does Waiver Recommendations keep telling me to pick up another defense?
A) While your strategy is to pick and chose Defense and Kicker each week, The Machine tries to build a roster that is ideal for the remainder of the year. The way you get The Machine to not add another Defense or Kicker to your team is with the limit option. If you click limit, The Machine will recommend swapping defensive teams and it will not recommend adding an additional defensive team in place of another player. The figure below shows a fairly standard set of options for running the waivers recommendations. You can read more information about the Waiver Recommendation options in the Waiver Recommendations Help page.
Why is The Machine recommending me to pick an injured player?
A) You should always check player health before making any transaction and factor that into your decision. The Machine is not making waiver recommendations solely on attempting to win the next game, but rather winning the entire season. If a player is a bit banged up, but has good matchups in later weeks, especially playoff weeks, it might be great to pick that player up now while he is easily obtainable. Generally, when The Machine makes these types of recommendations you may want to wait a little while, but at the risk of losing the pickup on that player once he is healthy.
If you are still uncertain about the Waiver Recommendations that The Machine is providing, you can go to the Player Projections page to focus on the Current Week only rather than impact the overall season. On the Player Projections page, The Machine weighs all players based on your selected blend of projections and your league’s scoring rules. You can filter the list of only players on your team and available as free agents, and you can sort by most points in a given week.