Q) What Does The Information From Trade Judge Mean?
Q) What does the information in the Trade Judge tables and output mean? For example, what does the "Value" for each team mean? Also, what does the “Initial Win %”, and other rows indicate?
A) Starting with the top table in Trade Judge, the “Value” assigned to each player is the amount that a team’s probability to win the championship goes down if a team loses that player and the player is not replaced. When creating this chart, Trade Judge is using blended projections from the four sources. The better a team’s probability to win the championship the greater the loss to probability to win when the team losses a player.
Next, Trade Judge uses each set of the four sources of projections one at a time.
- The "Initial Win %" row in the second table is the probability that each team will win the championship based on the current roster and not accounting for waivers.
- The "Trade Adjusted Win %" row is the probability to win based on the trade using the original rosters of the teams performing the trade (prior to pseudo-waiver adjustment). All other teams still have the pseudo-waivers.
Finally, the effect of the trade is calculated. Depending on how everything comes out, Trade Judge uses complex logic to figure out if the trade should be allowed.
One thing that may seem a bit suspect are results that may seem dramatically different than the others. If one provider agreed that a trade hurts one team, it would seem to be an unbalanced trade, but it would still be accepted because it is hurting the stronger team and helping the weaker team. This does not upset the balance of the league so should be allowed. Trade Judge is not trying to protect teams from making bad trades for themselves, it is trying to protect the league from trades that are unbalanced and bad for the league.