Q) Trade Recommendations are not what I expect. Are they correct?
A) First, you should make sure The Machine is set up correctly. Go to the League Setup pages and review scoring rules and starting lineup requirements to make sure they accurately reflect your leagues rules.
Next, check player projections on the Player Projections page. Look to see if the players involved in the trade have projections that you agree with. You can see details of how a projection is made by clicking on the fantasy point value of a particular player for a particular week. You can also change blending percentages to more heavily weighed projection providers you agree with more.
Once you are certain all the setup is correct you will still be likely to receive trade recommendations that are not intuitive. The Machine is performing much deeper math than any person can do easily to decide trades to recommend. It could easily recommend trading for a lesser player simply because the player helps you with a single critical matchup in the playoffs which you need more than the player it is recommending you trade away. The Machine is very good at putting together committee positions that score at a higher rate than any individual on the roster, so it could be finding a player that is a great compliment for other players on your team. The Machine also understands your ideal position allocations to maximize your probability to win based on injury rates and league rules. These position allocations also might not be intuitive.
In addition, one of our projection partners might have a higher or lower value on a player than you might expect. If you do not agree with a specific partners rankings of a player, you can change the blend of projections to better suit your player preferences. To do this, you go to player projections click on the player in question. This will show how each of our providers ranks that player. If you do not agree with one of them, you may then adjust the blending to reflect the partners more in line with your thinking.
Finally, after looking more in-depth at the weekly projections of the players involved in the trade and how they impact your team each week, you should add your own judgment. The Machine makes recommendations based on pure math, not based on what might be perceived as the “fair market value” of a player. Knowing how others perceive the value of a player, you might be able to get a better trade than what The Machine recommended. You should also check player health. For example, you might feel a recovering player has more risk than upside in the later weeks.