Leonard LaPadula - CEO
My league just finished its draft today. I used The Machine for my draft and before the draft started, I used the player and pick value table to guide me in keeper trades and pick for pick trades. The Machine gave me the information I needed to trade out of the first round and pick up and extra early round pick. At the conclusion of the draft out of 12 teams, The Machine gives my team a 73.2% chance of making the playoffs and the highest probability of winning, 17.1% out of 12 teams.
My team is off to a great start, but our studies last year showed that on average, about 50% of the players we acquire during our draft are not on our team at the end of the year. Well we just released our full waiver recommendation capability less than an hour ago. Within minutes after my draft completed, The Machine was giving me valuable recommendations about how to improve my team. Our patent-pending waiver recommendation process has three steps.
First it analyzes all the players on your team roster to determine how much your probability to win the championship is impacted by losing the player. As you can see in the following figure, players are ranked from most valuable to least valuable.
Next it lets you guide it through some of your preferences. Being in a keeper league, and believe Jacoby Jones is going to step up this year, I did not want The Machine to consider Jacoby to drop him on the waiver wire, so I clicked the retain button next to his name. Also, there are still some good defenses available on waivers and I did not want The Machine to recommend to pick a defense, unless I was dropping another defense in exchange, so I clicked limit under Def.
Finally, I clicked the "Get Recommendations" button and in under a minute I had great waiver recommendations to consider all sorted in positionally sensitive manner to enter into my leagues blind-bidding multi-round waivers. It has shown me how I can improve my team's probability to win the championship by 1% simply by swapping defenses and kickers. It also lightly recommended I consider dropping Todd Heap and picking up Brent Celek. Tough choice there, but I am sticking with Heap because I feel Kolb will be dumping off to Heap a lot in an offense where Fitzgerald will be stretching the field and receives will be working to get on the same page with Kolb for a while. I feel Vick would rather take off and run than dump off to his TE, so sticking with what I got.
Since I drafted with The Machine, my team is already well balanced, so for me waiver recommendations will really only jump around as player's projections change. However, for someone that did not use The Machine to draft, it is amazing what it finds. And for a limited time, the full waivers recommendation feature is free to My Fantasy League and RealTime Fantasy Sports participants. Users don't even need to register to try it out; all they need to do is click the link from their franchise page within their leagues.
It feels good to finally make the technology available that I prototyped in 2009 that caused my team to win its first six games in a row, have the highest fantasy points in the middle of the season and give me great odds to win in the playoffs and which got us a 2nd place finish in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association Hearts League last year. The functionality for Trades is coming soon!