Q) How does The Machine – Fantasy Football work?
A) For all those fellow math nerds out there, here's a bit more information on the magic that makes The Machine work.
Create Player Projections
The first step is to create fantasy point projections for all NFL players. Starting with projections that come from FantasySharks, ProFootball Focus Fantasy, CBS Sports, and FantasyFootball Metrics, we blend these projections based on a mix that you specify and then apply to your league’s scoring rules, to generate a fantasy point projections for each player, for each week.
Create Fantasy Point Probability Distributions
Next, The Machine builds fantasy point probability distributions for each player based on historical projection variance1 and accuracy2 data.Then it adds historic injury (and other events that prevent players from being available for a game) rates and accounts for backups on your roster to come up with a probability distribution for each week, for each starting position.
Create Team Fantasy Point Probability Distributions
Using the probability projections of each starter, The Machine – Fantasy Football builds total fantasy point distributions for each team, for each week.Using these distributions, it is able to determine the probability to win matchups, build total season fantasy point distributions, or weekly ranking probabilities for leagues that use victory points.
Determine Playoff Probabilities
Next using the regular season probability simulation result, The Machine – Fantasy Football, uses advanced algorithms that account for league divisions to determine each team’s playoff seeding probabilities.
Calculate Probability to Win
Finally, The Machine calculates what you care about the most, your probability to win it all! Using the playoff seeding probabilities and playoff matchup probabilities it calculates the probability of each team to win the championship.
Trade Recommendations Example
In a twelve-team league with eighteen-player rosters, The Machine evaluates over 250 million possible trade combinations to find the top mutually beneficial trades with the highest chance of being approved by another team manager.
1Variance is a measure of how much projections change from week to week over the course of the NFL season. This enables The Machine to accurately value backup players and therefore find high value picks in the deep rounds of the draft.
2Accuracy is a measure of how closely final projections match actual results.