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- Created on Thursday, 09 August 2012 07:20
John Bennice - VP of Business Development
Let me give you some facts so you can decide for yourself.
The team at Advanced Sports Logic (ASL) gave The Machine an objective test—to see how well it would perform in giving player recommendations and predictions of success. Using The Machine, Advanced Sports Logic played in the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Experts’ Pick contest. We let The Machine drive our decision-making, competing against a world class field of experts.
During the draft, The Machine displays a pie chart with all the teams and estimates their chances of winning the championship. The chart is updated after every pick is made to reflect the impact of that pick as predicted by The Machine. The figure to the right shows this pie chart at the conclusion of our draft.
We were team 10 and here is a photo of the draft board showing the team we drafted:
Picking three WRs in the first three rounds and no running back until the 5th round went against conventional wisdom. Nevertheless, the math of The Machine prevailed. The chart below shows how well we did AND how well The Machine predicted the finish of the Fantasy Football Experts Draft’s twelve teams back in June of 2011 right after the draft completed:
While I was pleased that The Machine predicted Advanced Sports Logic to finish first, (and we did so in both total Fantasy Points and Regular Season record), I was far more impressed that The Machine also predicted accurately where all the other teams would finish as well. Four teams were predicted spot-on; five teams were predicted with an offset of only 1 position.
The Advanced Sports Logic team analyzed the results a little deeper and found that six of the eight players The Machine drafted were among the top 30 overall scorers for weeks 1 -14: Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Fred Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Rob Gronkowski. We also discovered that even though our top two running backs scored only 305 total fantasy points compared with Fantasy Dispute’s 410, The Machine built a highly efficient running back by committee, such that The Machine’s RB starters averaged 12.2 points/week compared to Fantasy Dispute’s 13.13 points/week. So while total fantasy points from our top two RBs were 26% lower than Fantasy Dispute’s, productive fantasy points from The Machine’s running back “committee” were only 7% lower – a position Fantasy Dispute started to fill with their first round pick and which The Machine did not start to fill until the fifth round.
Finally, this type of result was not unique to our team in the FSTA. Metrics we captured from thousands of leagues last year show that the more a team owner trusted The Machine during their draft, the better they did for their season. If you trust The Machine to guide your player selections during the draft, you will almost always end up with at least a 20% probability to win your league championship. The table below sorts teams that actively used The Machine for the first six weeks of the season by the estimated probability to win after week 1. (These results DO include teams that became inactive after week six so results are not skewed positively by attrition that can occur when a team gets too far behind.)
Those that trusted The Machine during their draft are generally reflected in the top two groups. Just as in the FSTA Expert’s Draft, The Machine accurately predicted results for all groups based on probability to win right after the draft completed.
Before a single down had even been played, The Machine predicted very accurately an entire season’s final results!
This is why The Machine is the winningest team guidance tool available and this is why you should trust THE MACHINE!